{"id":63152,"date":"2026-01-14T17:53:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T16:53:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thedigitalnewdeal.org\/?p=63152"},"modified":"2026-02-25T01:15:25","modified_gmt":"2026-02-25T00:15:25","slug":"the-dependency-economy-of-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thedigitalnewdeal.org\/en\/the-dependency-economy-of-ai\/","title":{"rendered":"THE DEPENDENCY ECONOMY OF AI"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row unlock_row_content=”yes” row_height_percent=”0″ override_padding=”yes” h_padding=”3″ top_padding=”2″ bottom_padding=”2″ overlay_alpha=”50″ gutter_size=”4″ column_width_percent=”100″ shift_y=”0″ z_index=”0″][vc_column column_width_percent=”100″ gutter_size=”3″ overlay_alpha=”50″ shift_x=”0″ shift_y=”0″ shift_y_down=”0″ z_index=”0″ medium_width=”5″ mobile_width=”0″ width=”2\/3″][vc_column_text el_class=”textone” uncode_shortcode_id=”110236″]This report by Singapore-based expert Damien Kopp analyses 25 national AI strategies and reaches an unequivocal conclusion: today\u2019s pursuit of autonomy is being built on borrowed technologies. We have entered the era of the \u201csovereignty paradox.\u201d<\/strong> The more governments and companies invest in building their own AI, the more they reinforce their structural dependence on a small number of foreign suppliers for chips (GPUs), cloud infrastructure, and foundation models.<\/p>\n

AI is no longer just a technology; it has become a geopolitical supply chain<\/strong>, comparable to energy, structured around a handful of critical chokepoints. Each link in this chain is concentrated, territorially anchored, legally constrained\u2014and therefore potentially instrumentalised. The strategic question is no longer one of ownership, but of control over critical dependencies and the ability to continue operating in the event of disruption.<\/p>\n

A comparative analysis of 25 countries shows that only the United States and China come close to \u201cfull-stack\u201d sovereignty (hardware, cloud, models, data). For the rest of the world, the reality is one of managed dependency, expressed through four main archetypes:
\n– 1 \u201cFull-stack \/ hybrid\u201d sovereignty<\/strong> (e.g. United States, China, South Korea, Japan): these nations invest heavily in hard infrastructure\u2014semiconductor fabs and national compute capacity\u2014to reduce their dependence over the medium term.
\n– 2 Regulatory sovereignty (e.g. France, Canada, Germany)<\/strong>: this is the European path. Control is exercised through law (AI Act, GDPR) over infrastructure that is not owned. It is a powerful trust-building lever, but one that does not resolve dependence on foreign chips and cloud infrastructure.
\n– 3 The \u201cOpen-Yet-Local\u201d model (e.g. India, Brazil, Singapore)<\/strong>: unable to compete on hardware, these countries focus on linguistic inclusion and control over local use cases, relying on foreign infrastructure while retaining control over the cultural and application layers.
\n– 4 The partnership model (e.g. United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Australia)<\/strong>: these countries prioritise speed. They accept deep technological dependence on U.S. tech giants in exchange for immediate access to state-of-the-art capabilities.
\nNone of these models fully escapes dependency. But some manage it strategically, while others simply endure it. The paradox is clear: the faster a country seeks to deploy AI, the more it may end up reinforcing the very dependencies it claims to reduce.<\/p>\n

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\u00ab\u00a0AI is no longer just a technology: it has become a geopolitical supply chain\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong><\/h2>\n

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS<\/strong>
\nFor both enterprises and public decision-makers :<\/strong>
\n1. \u00a0Treat AI as a strategic business continuity risk<\/strong>, on par with energy and critical supply chains.
\n2. \u00a0Make dependencies visible and measurable through dedicated tools<\/strong> such as the Digital Resilience Index, in order to prioritize investments where disruption would have the greatest impact.
\n3. \u00a0Build resilience by design<\/strong> through technology-agnostic architectures, supplier diversification, exit capabilities, and local control over data and models.
\n4. \u00a0Elevate AI governance to board level<\/strong>, fully integrating geopolitical, energy, and industrial dimensions.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

KEY LEARNING FOR EUROPE<\/strong>
\nThe report highlights a decisive and counter intuitive insight: Europe can genuinely regain control over its digital destiny<\/strong>. Our capabilities are fragmented, but if pooled at the European level, they can reach critical mass and rise to the level of the United States and China.
\nThe Japanese and Korean trajectories show that a path toward strategic autonomy is possible, including in the \u201chard\u201d layers (semiconductors and compute).
\nThis requires an integrated European strategy, making the Digital Single Market a shared framework for investment and deployment, while pursuing an open policy toward global partners who share our values and face similar geopolitical vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n

The study shows that Europe\u2019s lag is not structural, but organizational<\/strong>:
\n– if Europe were to genuinely unify its forces, it would move from 28 to 34;
\n– and if it were to pool its investments in the \u201chard\u201d layers (as Japan has done), Europe would reach parity with the United States and China (36 out of 40).<\/p>\n

 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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L’objectif est d’\u00e9viter la m\u00eame na\u00efvet\u00e9 que celle qui a marqu\u00e9 l’arriv\u00e9e du Web2, il y a 25 ans, et qui nous a co\u00fbt\u00e9 si cher en termes de comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 et de souverainet\u00e9. Nous devons pr\u00e9venir ce que nous appelons un “enfermement au carr\u00e9” (GenAI = Web2\u00b2). Si nous n’agissons pas, nos entreprises risquent de se retrouver encore plus coinc\u00e9es par les BigTechs, prises d\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9 par leurs BigClouds (hyperscalers comme Azure, AWS ou
\nGoogleCloud) et de l\u2019autre par leurs BigAI (comme OpenAI ou Gemini).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":57342,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications-en"],"yoast_head":"\nTHE DEPENDENCY ECONOMY OF AI - Digital New Deal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ce rapport met en lumi\u00e8re une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 d\u00e9sormais incontestable : la souverainet\u00e9 en mati\u00e8re d\u2019intelligence artificielle est largement illusoire lorsqu\u2019elle est con\u00e7ue comme une ind\u00e9pendance technologique.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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